A Neural Network Measurement of Relative Military Security: The Case of Greece and Cyprus

This paper aims at introducing a relative security measure, applicable to evaluating the impact of arms races on the military security of allies. This measure is based on demographic criteria, which play a dominant role in a number of arms races involving military alliances. The case of Greece and Cyprus, on one hand, and Turkey on the other, is the one to which our relative security measure is applied and tested. Artificial neural networks were trained to forecast the future behaviour of relative security. The high forecasting performance permitted the application of alternative scenarios for predicting the impact of the Greek - Turkish arms race on the relative security of the Greek - Cypriot alliance.Arms Race, Neural Networks, Relative Military Security

The Vicious Cycle of the Foreign Military Debt

This paper aims at estimating first the effects of defense spending on the main determinants of growth, and second the extent to and the channels through which the military debt of Greece influences the overall debt burden of the country, and consequently the critical determinants of economic growth and development. Increased imports of sophisticated weapons and military equipment can be financed at the cost of investment (guns v. ploughshares), or/and at the cost of human capital formation (guns v. butter and chalk), or at the cost of increasing the foreign debt of the country. It is this last case which is investigated in this paper. Our empirical results indicate that whatever the necessity and the benefits of the security aspect of defense, its economic costs are quite substantial. The military as a claimant of resources has a negative and non trivial effect on physical capital accumulation, and human capital formation. Moreover, financing increased military imports through borrowing from abroad has a negative and significant effect on the determinants of growth and development.Key Words: Defense Burden, Foreign Military Debt, Growth Rate, Investment, Education.

Financial Versus Human Resources in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks

This paper aims at forecasting the burden on the Greek economy resulting from the arms race against Turkey and at concentrating on the leading determinants of this burden. The military debt and the defence share of GDP are employed alternatively in order to approximate the measurement of the arms race pressure on Greece, and the method used is that of artificial neural networks. The use of a wide variety of explanatory variables in combination with the promising results derived, suggest that the impact on the Greek economy resulting from this arms race is determined, to a large extent, by demographic factors which strongly favour the Turkish side. Prediction on both miltary debt and defence expenditure exhibited highly satisfactory accuracy, while the estimation of input significance, indicates that variables describing the Turkish side are often dominant over the corresponding Greek ones.Greek Military Debt, Defence Expenditure, Neural Networks

Computational Intelligence in Exchange-Rate Forecasting

This paper applies computational intelligence methods to exchange rate forecasting. In particular, it employs neural network methodology in order to predict developments of the Euro exchange rate versus the U.S. Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Following a study of our series using traditional as well as specialized, non-parametric methods together with Monte Carlo simulations we employ selected Neural Networks (NNs) trained to forecast rate fluctuations. Despite the fact that the data series have been shown by the Rescaled Range Statistic (R/S) analysis to exhibit random behaviour, their internal dynamics have been successfully captured by certain NN topologies, thus yielding accurate predictions of the two exchange-rate series.Exchange - rate forecasting, Neural networks

The Greek Current Account Deficit:Is it Sustainable after all?

The large Greek current account deficit figures reported during the past few years have become the source of increasing concern regarding its sustainability. Bearing in mind the variety of techniques employed and the views expressed as regards the analysis and the assessment of the size of the current account deficit, this paper resorts to using neural network architectures to demonstrate that, despite its size, the current account deficit of Greece can be considered sustainable. This conclusion, however, is not meant to neglect the structural weaknesses that lead to such a deficit. In fact, even in the absence of any financing requirements these high deficit figures point to serious competitiveness losses with everything that these may entail for the future performance of the Greek economy.Neural Networks; Current Account Deficit Sustainability

An evaluation of policies for fiscal and external sustainability during the recent Greek economic crisis

The scope of this note is to point out that high growth rates must be accompanied by current account surpluses financing the internal debt service as a necessary and sufficient condition for a debt-reduction strategy. The recipe is applied in the case of Greece which, looking back at the pre-crisis period, has been experiencing substantial consumptionled growth following extensive foreign borrowing.peer-reviewe

An evaluation of policies for fiscal and external sustainability during the recent Greek economic crisis

The scope of this note is to point out that high growth rates must be accompanied by current account surpluses financing the internal debt service as a necessary and sufficient condition for a debt-reduction strategy. The recipe is applied in the case of Greece which, looking back at the pre-crisis period, has been experiencing substantial consumptionled growth following extensive foreign borrowing.peer-reviewe

Assessing the impact of domestic economic crises on foreign travel data recording : the Greek case

Purpose: We assess whether statistical recording of international travel activity towards a country in financial crisis environment underestimates the actual picture of its tourism receipts. Design/Methodology/Approach: Considering the case of Greece and using data during a period including the financial crisis, a VECM estimation highlights the factors endogenously affecting the recorded international travel receipts. Findings: The performance of international travel receipts during the Greek crisis cannot be explained only by changes in variables proposed in the appropriate theoretical background like foreign demand and relative prices. In addition, inward travel activity in the country has been adversely affected by the rise in domestic turmoil following the crisis, while travel receipts indicators underestimate actual tourism performance during periods of intense turbulence in the financial system. Practical Implications: Accounting for such under recording, policy makers can more accurately assess the performance and actual contribution of the tourism sector to an economy under stress, upon designing the appropriate sectoral policy interventions. In parallel, tourism sector stakeholders can form a better-informed view about the sector’s actual trends and prospects. Originality/Value: In the case of the Greek financial crisis we find that the effective income contribution of the tourism sector to Greek service providers was considerably higher than recorded international receipts, by circa 4.6% of annual revenues and cumulatively by €2.8 billion during the four-year period following the imposition of capital controls.peer-reviewe

Forecasting Exchange-Rates via Local Approximation Methods and Neural Networks

There has been an increased number of papers in the literature in recent years, applying several methods and techniques for exchange - rate prediction. This paper focuses on the Greek drachma using daily observations of the drachma rates against four major currencies, namely the U.S. Dollar (USD), the Deutsche Mark (DM), the French Franc (FF) and the British Pound (GBP) for a period of 11 years, aiming at forecasting their short-term course by applying local approximation methods based on both chaotic analysis and neural networks.Key Words: Exchange Rates, Forecasting, Neural Networks

An Evaluation of Policies for Fiscal and External Sustainability during the Recent Greek Economic Crisis

The scope of this note is to point out that high growth rates must be accompanied by current account surpluses financing the internal debt service as a necessary and sufficient condition for a debt-reduction strategy. The recipe is applied in the case of Greece which, looking back at the pre-crisis period, has been experiencing substantial consumption-led growth following extensive foreign borrowing